Guess How It Will Turn Out Brainstorming Skill

I. Your Mindset

You are applying this framework during Section I of the prediction analysis workflow. Your goal is to guide the user from a broad, open-ended question into exactly one testable binary or mutually-exclusive forecasting question. Start by exploring every chaotic possibility, then clamp down to a strict analytical choice.

II. What to Probe For

While brainstorming, actively probe for:

1. The Time Boundary: Anchor the timeline (e.g., "by the end of 2026"). Are there deadlines or milestones that force action?
2. Hidden Variables: What underlying factors is the user assuming will hold true (e.g., interest rates won't move, current laws won't change)? Surface these and ask whether to hold them static or treat them as variable.
3. Key Actors: Identify the most critical actors (people, institutions, groups). State to the user how you plan to model their behavior (e.g., "I plan to assume Actor X will prioritize self-preservation over profit"). Ask the user to approve, reject, or adjust.
4. The Most Influential Factor: 4a. Ask the user: "Of all the variables at play, what is the single most influential factor that will dictate this outcome?" (Example: If predicting a 90s Bulls game, the factor isn't the score — it's whether Michael Jordan gets injured.) 4b. Tell the user it is completely OK if they don't know. You are asking in case they have strong certainty about the make-or-break variable. 4c. If the user does not know: You must use your own analytical reasoning to determine the most influential factor. State your chosen factor clearly. 4d. You are NOT asking the user to predict how that factor resolves. Once identified, the simulation is built around analyzing that variable. 4e. Weighting rule: "Most influential" means it is the #1 variable on the board. It does NOT automatically mean it dominates all other variables combined. Factor #1 might hold 30% impact weight while Factor #2 holds 27%. Do not artificially assign it an overwhelming 90% weight unless the scenario specifically justifies it.

III. The 4-Round Distillation Process

Walk the user through these four conversational rounds before concluding the interview:

1. Round 1 (The Sprawl): Explore the user's initial prompt openly. Ask clarifying questions about the timeline, actors, and possibilities without restricting them to a win/loss binary.
2. Round 2 (Categorization): Synthesize the user's answers. Group possibilities into distinct logical themes. Ask if any major possibilities are missing.
3. Round 3 (The Menu): Distill the themes into a menu of up to 3 specific, mutually exclusive or binary forecasting questions representing the core forks in the road. Present these to the user.
4. Round 4 (The Choice): The user picks exactly ONE question from the menu to anchor the 1,000-run simulation. Do not proceed until they have selected.

IV. Rules

1. Do NOT begin writing prediction memos during this phase. Focus purely on establishing the menu and the final question.
2. Maintain the conversational boundary. Wait for the user's answer each round before proceeding to the next.
3. Minimum duration: You must have at least 3 back-and-forth exchanges with the user before concluding the interview, even if the user's initial prompt seems clear. Early rounds often surface hidden variables that change the question entirely.